12 October 2006

Impending Democratic Landslide?

I remember too well the late October polls which showed that Kerry was sure to beat Bush and I have vowed to never put so much of my hopes into polls again. But this is certainly encouraging. Constituent Dynamics has put out a huge slew of polls today -- 48 districts. The results do not look good for the GOP. (Cool interactive poll -- check it out.)

If you look at only the races where the Democrats lead is outside of the margin of error, the Dems are already at 218 seats, which is the magic number needed for Speaker Pelosi (TX-22 is considered a certain pick-up and was not polled). There are another 20-25 races which are toss-ups. If there is no "Democratic breeze" blowing and we only split the remaining seats, the Democrats will control the House 228-207. If we do better than predicted, the margin could be even larger.

Now there is only one poll that matters, and that's in 25 days. Whether this is a huge win, a win, or a loss will depend on the ground game -- and the Republicans have the best ground game. They've beaten us with it before, and I have seen them close the deal too many times for me to take anything other than transitory pleasure from this sort of polling data. But it is encouraging.


  1. While I am encouraged I am also scared shitless. Saw what happened in 2004 when I was closely involved in 3 campaigns. All of my Dem candidates lost by a microscopic margin...thought I was going to lose it as well.

    Never ever again will I be over-confident when it comes to campaigns.

  2. Well, the thing with polls is they are a scientific representation of the public. The votes cast are in direct proportion to the prediction by the polling (within the scientific margin of error).

    So, they only tell the story if the votes are accurately and impartially counted. That didn't happen in November of 2004.

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