Okay, pure horse-race politics here. It's just three days away (finally) and it's time to put my chips on the table. Here's my predictions for Tuesday night. I may be hysterically wrong, or prophetic, but's that's the fun of predicting, right?
- Obama-Biden 379 EVs
- McCain-Palin 159 EVs
- Turnout: 130,000,000 votes
- 70,000,000 Obama
- 60,000,000 McCain
- or Obama 54%-46% (neglecting third parties)
State-by state results:
Obama keeps all the other Kerry states and wins the "battleground" states of: FL, NC, VA, GA, OH, PA, MI, WI, MN, IA, MO, CO, NM, NV
GA is my long-shot pick. CW is it's out of reach, but turnout there may surprise us. Obama has made plays for IN, WV, AZ, and has a chance at LA, MT and the Dakotas, but I predict all of those will narrowly stay in the McCain column.
Here's my predicted map:
This includes Lieberman and Sanders in the Dem caucus, for the sake of argument.
- VA Warner (open)
- NH Shaheen (Sununu)
- NM Udall (open)
- CO Udall (open)
- AK Begich (Stevens)
- OR Merkley (Smith)
- NC Hagan (Dole)
Let's say a net Dem pickup of 20 seats for a Congress composed of 256 Dem to 178 Rep. That's a conservative estimate, but there have been a few setbacks in the House races recently. A big Obama night could conceivably run the Dems up to as much as 270 seats. That really would require running the table.
The cool map up there is courtesy of the Daily Kos Political Scoreboard. I don't care if you think DKos is a bunch of lefty haters, you've got to go check out the scoreboard. It's the coolest toy ever for a political junkie. You can of course play with the EV map, but you can also drill down to the state level, graphically looking at county-by county results, or individual congressional district results historically, all of which will be updated in real time on Tuesday. It's very very cool. Also, 538.com has a wealth of data on the current state of the races, and NBC's political guru Chuck Todd has a nice state-by-state walkthrough as well.
Okay, there it is. Now you all know that I am terribly, terribly wrong. Tell me where, and why. And be nice about it. We're all grown-ups here.