Let's predict -- Just for fun. Pollster predicts 234 seats for the Dems, which would be a pick-up of 32 seats. Charlie Cook predicts 20-35 seats for the Dems. Over at Hotline they see a consensus of 25 seats. Stu Rothenberg sees 30-36 seats going blue.
After 2004, I am incapable of this sort of rational exuberance. The numbers do look that good, but I am going to take the "under" and predict that the Speaker Pelosi will take the gavel with a 5 seat majority -- total pick-up of 20.
Why? Dunno. Cynicism, the proven GOP GOTV game, expecting some republicans to get in the booth and find they just can't pull that "D" lever. Also, I'm a Cubs fan at heart. I expect, on a fundamental, genetic level, for my team to blow it in the ninth. And the GOP has been the Yankees of politics for the last decade or two.
For completeness, I will predict four seats in the Senate. Pennslyvania, Rhode Island, Ohio, and Missouri. Maybe Virginia, also. I think Montana and Tennessee will slip away from us. We'd need six of the seven to take control (and all seven to build a Lieberman-proof majority).
I will predict that Lieberman will win a squeaker, caucus with the GOP, and be indicted in 2007.
I do see one historic possibility -- I think this will be the first election in forever in which one party (the Democrats, in this case) does not lose a single seat it currently holds.
07 November 2006
Posted by shadowfax at 4:36 AM