07 November 2006

Game Day

It's on.

Let's predict -- Just for fun. Pollster predicts 234 seats for the Dems, which would be a pick-up of 32 seats. Charlie Cook predicts 20-35 seats for the Dems. Over at Hotline they see a consensus of 25 seats. Stu Rothenberg sees 30-36 seats going blue.

After 2004, I am incapable of this sort of rational exuberance. The numbers do look that good, but I am going to take the "under" and predict that the Speaker Pelosi will take the gavel with a 5 seat majority -- total pick-up of 20.

Why? Dunno. Cynicism, the proven GOP GOTV game, expecting some republicans to get in the booth and find they just can't pull that "D" lever. Also, I'm a Cubs fan at heart. I expect, on a fundamental, genetic level, for my team to blow it in the ninth. And the GOP has been the Yankees of politics for the last decade or two.

For completeness, I will predict four seats in the Senate. Pennslyvania, Rhode Island, Ohio, and Missouri. Maybe Virginia, also. I think Montana and Tennessee will slip away from us. We'd need six of the seven to take control (and all seven to build a Lieberman-proof majority).

I will predict that Lieberman will win a squeaker, caucus with the GOP, and be indicted in 2007.

I do see one historic possibility -- I think this will be the first election in forever in which one party (the Democrats, in this case) does not lose a single seat it currently holds.

Game on.

7 comments:

matt dick said...

No way the dems don't lose a seat. MD could easily give one Senate saet back to the Reps. I am predicting 22 seats in the House and 5 in the Senate, and then we'll *always* know where Cheney is.

I can't imagine that the House gets a super majority and can then be veto-proof. That would rock though, since we'd get stem cell research back in play.

I love election day.

matt dick said...

To clarify, I think it's 5 net gain for Dems in the Senate, meaning they gain six and lose one, or gain seven and lose two.

Mother Jones RN said...

Dems will gain control of the House. It's a flip of the coin if the Dems will take the Senate. It depends on how well the Republicans rig the vote.

MJ

Anonymous said...

Like shadowfax, I'm a Cubs fan (brilliant analogy, btw)... so I'm not betting on the Dems, but sure as hell hoping.

keagirl said...

The Cubs have won !!!!!
Maybe not the World Series, but certainly against the Yankees tonight.

I also did not want to get my hopes up, but I am feeling much more hopeful now. Looks like we got Montana, but VA and MO will keep us on edge for a little while longer.

By the way, it's 2006, and about time a woman got to be speaker of the house.

shadowfax said...

Careful there, kea . . . let a woman be speaker and next thing they'll want to be doctors, too.

Dana said...

"Careful there, kea . . . let a woman be speaker and next thing they'll want to be doctors, too."

Oooh, me! Me! :0)